Republican senators face uncomfortable vote on Trump's Canadian tariffs

Senate Democrats are putting Republican support for some of Donald Trump's tariff plans to the test by forcing a vote to nullify the emergency declaration that underpins the levies on Canada.

Republicans have watched with some unease as the president's attempts to remake global trade have sent the stock market downward, but they have so far stood by Trump's on-again-off-again threats to levy taxes on imported goods.

Even as the resolution from Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia offered them a potential off-ramp to the tariffs levied on Canadian imports, Republican leaders were trying to keep senators in line by focusing on fentanyl that comes into the U.S. over its northern border.

Kaine's resolution — expected to go to a vote as early as Tuesday — challenges Trump's use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, also called IEEPA, to declare an emergency at the northern border in order to hit Canada with tariffs. The IEEPA includes a provision allowing any senator to force a vote to block emergency powers.

WATCH l Sen. Tim Kaine explains to CBC News why vote could be more than just symbolic: The U.S. Senate is set to vote Tuesday on a resolution from Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to challenge U.S. President Donald Trump's use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, to declare an emergency at the northern border in order to hit Canada with tariffs.

Kaine told CBC News on Tuesday that in Trump's first term, lukewarm support from Congress on more than one occasion forced him to reconsider certain White House plans. Kaine said he hoped the tariffs vote "could have an effect on curbing the president's behaviour."

"If we get a good solid bipartisan vote in the Senate, that's going to be a powerful message to Donald Trump and his economic advisers that you are playing with fire — don't raise taxes on Americans on their groceries and building supplies at a time when the economy is softening," he said.

Kaine said he has heard from constituents who are "hopping mad" about the potential for tariffs, and that the measure is also intended to demonstrate that the U.S.-Canada relationship is highly valued.

To be successful in the Senate, Kaine's measure would need the support of all 46 of his Democratic colleagues in the chamber, as well as four Republicans.

Kentucky Republican Rand Paul is a co-sponsor of Kaine's measure.

"I live in a state where we have three of the big automobile manufacturers. They're all opposed to the tariffs, and I think that it would hurt them," Paul told a U.S. radio show on Sunday. "The bourbon industry in Kentucky, they don't like the tariffs."

According to Politico.com, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson moved earlier this month to block the ability of tariff critics to force a floor vote in that chamber.

That means it is highly likely that Trump won't be prevented legislatively from pursuing his tariff agenda with Canada, but if Kaine's resolution succeeds, it would still be a symbolic rebuke to the president.

Several Republican senators represent states that share a land or water border with Canada, a list that includes Susan Collins of Maine, Pennsylvania's Dave McCormick, Steve Daines of Montana, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and both senators from Idaho and Ohio. 

Fentanyl a 'smoke screen,' Kaine says

Kaine, in an op-ed in the Washington Post late last week, accused Trump of "using [a] fake emergency as a smoke screen to collect tariff revenue," citing public polling that the measure is unpopular with Americans, as well as a Yale University study indicating they could cost the average American family up to $2,000 more each year.

A small fraction of the fentanyl that comes into the U.S. enters from Canada, and more drugs flow in the opposite direction. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the northern border during the 2024 fiscal year, and since January, authorities have seized less than 1.5 pounds, according to federal data. Meanwhile, at the southern U.S.-Mexico border, authorities seized over 21,000 pounds last year.

WATCH l White House has given shifting explanations for tariff need: U.S. President Donald Trump has offered multiple tariff justifications, from stopping drugs to reversing trade deficits to saving American jobs. CBC's Ellen Mauro breaks down Trump’s ever-shifting narrative, and whether a promise to expand huge tax cuts plays a role.

Most Republicans in the Senate have signalled they aren't exactly fans of tariffs, but argued that Trump is using them as a negotiating tool.

"I am supportive of using tariffs in a way to accomplish a specific objective, in this case ending drug traffic," Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota told reporters last month. He said this week that his "advice remains the same."

While Trump's close allies in the Senate were standing steadfastly by the idea of remaking the U.S. economy through tariffs, others have begun openly voicing their dissatisfaction with trade wars that could disrupt industries and raise prices on autos, groceries, housing and other goods.

"I'm keeping a close eye on all these tariffs because oftentimes the first folks that are hurt in a trade war are your farmers and ranchers," said Daines.

WATCH l Breaking down Trump's auto tariff plans: U.S. President Donald Trump is imposing a 25 per cent tariff on vehicles not made in the U.S. Andrew Chang explains why this threat is different. Plus, is now the perfect time to buy a home in Canada?

Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, conceded that Trump's tariff threats had injected uncertainty into global markets.

"We're in uncharted waters," Kennedy told reporters. "Nobody knows what the impact of these tariffs is going to be."

Recession more likely: Goldman Sachs

Earlier this month, Trump hit Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent across-the-board duties, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy — then partly paused the tariffs a few days later. Trump said at the time that the pause would last until April 2, which is Wednesday.

Trump has dubbed it "Liberation Day," and on Monday said the levies will bring "tremendous wealth" back to the U.S.

But economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their forecast for inflation and lowered it for U.S. economic growth for the end of the year.

They now see a 35 per cent chance of a U.S. recession in the next year, up from an earlier forecast of 20 per cent, "reflecting our lower growth forecast, falling confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain," according to Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle.

Reciprocal tariffs aren't the only ones set to launch this week. Trump's 25 per cent levies on automobiles are set to kick in on Thursday.